Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
